Construction and Validation of Mortality Risk Nomograph Model for Severe/Critical Patients with COVID-19.

Objective: A nomograph model of mortality risk for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was established and validated. Methods: We collected the clinical medical records of patients with severe/critical COVID-19 admitted to the eastern campus of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2020 to May 2020 and to the north campus of Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai JiaoTong University School of Medicine, from April 2022 to June 2022. We assigned 254 patients to the former group, which served as the training set, and 113 patients were assigned to the latter group, which served as the validation set. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression were used to select the variables and build the mortality risk prediction model. Results: The nomogram model was constructed with four risk factors for patient mortality following severe/critical COVID-19 (≥3 basic diseases, APACHE II score, urea nitrogen (Urea), and lactic acid (Lac)) and two protective factors (percentage of lymphocyte (L%) and neutrophil-to-platelets ratio (NPR)). The area under the curve (AUC) of the training set was 0.880 (95% confidence interval (95%CI), 0.837~0.923) and the AUC of the validation set was 0.814 (95%CI, 0.705~0.923). The decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomogram model had high clinical value. Conclusion: The nomogram model for predicting the death risk of patients with severe/critical COVID-19 showed good prediction performance, and may be helpful in making appropriate clinical decisions for high-risk patients.

Uric acid as a prognostic factor and critical marker of COVID-19.

The purpose of this study is to explore whether uric acid (UA) can independently act as a prognostic factor and critical marker of the 2019 novel corona virus disease (COVID-19). A multicenter, retrospective, and observational study including 540 patients with confirmed COVID-19 was carried out at four designated hospitals in Wuhan. Demographic, clinical, laboratory data were collected and analyzed. The primary end point was in-hospital death of patients with COVID-19. The concentration of admission UA (adUA) and the lowest concentration of uric acid during hospitalization (lowUA) in the dead patients were significantly lower than those in the survivors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed the concentration of lowUA (OR 0.986, 95% CI 0.980-0.992, p < 0.001) was able to independently predict the risk of in-hospital death. The mean survival time in the low-level group of lowUA was significantly lower than other groups. When lowUA was ≤ 166 µmol/L, the sensitivity and specificity in predicting hospital short-term mortality were 76.9%, (95% CI 68.5-85.1%) and 74.9% (95% CI 70.3-78.9%). This retrospective study determined that the lowest concentration of UA during hospitalization can be used as a prognostic indicator and a marker of disease severity in severe patients with COVID-19.

Nutritional risk and therapy for severe and critical COVID-19 patients: A multicenter retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the nutritional risk and therapy in severe and critical patients with COVID-19. METHODS: A total of 523 patients enrolled from four hospitals in Wuhan, China. The inclusion time was from January 2, 2020 to February 15. Clinical characteristics and laboratory values were obtained from electronic medical records, nursing records, and related examinations. RESULTS: Of these patients, 211 (40.3%) were admitted to the ICU and 115 deaths (22.0%). Patients admitted to the ICU had lower BMI and plasma protein levels. The median Nutrition risk in critically ill (NUTRIC) score of 211 patients in the ICU was 5 (4, 6) and Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) score was 5 (3, 6). The ratio of parenteral nutrition (PN) therapy in non-survivors was greater than that in survivors, and the time to start nutrition therapy was later than that in survivors. The NUTRIC score can independently predict the risk of death in the hospital (OR = 1.197, 95%CI: 1.091-1.445, p = 0.006) and high NRS score patients have a higher risk of poor outcome in the ICU (OR = 1.880, 95%CI: 1.151-3.070, p = 0.012). After adjusted age and sex, for each standard deviation increase in BMI, the risk of in-hospital death was reduced by 13% (HR = 0.871, 95%CI: 0.795-0.955, p = 0.003), and the risk of ICU transfer was reduced by 7% (HR = 0.932, 95%CI:0.885-0.981, p = 0.007). The in-hospital survival time of patients with albumin level ≤35 g/L was significantly decreased (15.9 d, 95% CI: 13.7-16.3, vs 24.2 d, 95% CI: 22.3-29.7, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Severe and critical patients with COVID-19 have a high risk of malnutrition. Low BMI and protein levels were significantly associated with adverse events. Early nutritional risk screening and therapy for patients with COVID-19 are necessary.

Impact of Shenfu injection on a composite of organ dysfunction development in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A structured summary of a study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine the protection provided by Shenfu injection (a traditional Chinese medicine) against development of organ dysfunction in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). TRIAL DESIGN: This study is a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label, two-arm ratio 1:1, parallel group clinical trial. PARTICIPANTS: The patients, who are aged from 18 to 75 years old, with a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of severe or critical COVID-19, will be consecutively recruited in the study, according to the guideline on diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 (the 7th version) issued by National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Exclusion criteria include pregnant and breastfeeding women, atopy or allergies to Shenfu Injection (SFI), severe underlying disease (malignant tumor with multiple metastases, uncontrolled hemopathy, cachexia, severe malnutrition, HIV), active bleeding, obstructive pneumonia caused by lung tumor, severe pulmonary interstitial fibrosis, alveolar proteinosis and allergic alveolitis, continuous use of immunosuppressive drugs in last 6 months, organ transplantation, expected death within 48 hours, the patients considered unsuitable for this study by researchers. The study is conducted in 11 ICUs of designated hospitals for COVID-19, located in 5 cities of China. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: The enrolled patients will randomly receive 100 ml SFI (study group) or identical volume of saline (control group) twice a day for seven consecutive days. Patients in the both groups will be given usual care and the necessary supportive therapies as recommended by the latest edition of the management guidelines for COVID-19 (the 7th version so far). MAIN OUTCOMES: The primary endpoint is a composite of newly developed or exacerbated organ dysfunction. This is defined as an increase in the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score of two or more, indicating sepsis and involvement of at least one organ. The SOFA score will be measured for the 14 days after enrolment from the baseline (the score at randomization). The secondary endpoints are shown below: • SOFA score in total • Pneumonia severity index score • Dosage of vasoactive drugs • Ventilation free days within 28 days • Length of stay in intensive care unit • Total hospital costs to treat the patient • 28-day mortality • The incidence of adverse drug events related to SFI RANDOMISATION: The block randomization codes were generated by SAS V.9.1 for allocation of participants in this study. The ratio of random distribution is 1:1. The sealed envelope method is used for allocation concealment. BLINDING (MASKING): The patients and statistical personnel analyzing study data are both blinded. The blinding of group assignment is not adopted for the medical staff. NUMBERS TO BE RANDOMISED (SAMPLE SIZE): This study is expected to recruit 300 patients with COVID-19, (150 in each group). TRIAL STATUS: Protocol version 2.0, February 15, 2020. Patient recruitment started on February 25, and will end on August 31, 2020. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry: ChiCTR2000030043. Registered February 21, 2020, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=49866 FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.

Prognostic value of serum amyloid A in patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prognostic value of serum amyloid A (SAA) in the patients with Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: The medical data of 89 COVID-19 patients admitted to Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 3, 2020 to February 26, 2020 were collected. Eighty-nine cases were divided into survival group (53 cases) and non-survival group (36 cases) according to the results of 28-day follow-up. The SAA levels of all patients were recorded and compared on 1 day after admission (before treatment) and 3 days, 5 days, and 7 days after treatment. The ROC curve was drawn to analyze the prognosis of patients with COVID-19 by SAA. RESULTS: The difference of comparison of SAA between survival group and non-survival group before treatment was not statistically significant, Z1 = - 1.426, P = 0.154. The Z1 values (Z1 is the Z value of the rank sum test) of the two groups of patients at 3 days, 5 days, and 7 days after treatment were - 5.569, - 6.967, and - 7.542, respectively. The P values were all less than 0.001, and the difference was statistically significant. The ROC curve results showed that SAA has higher sensitivity to the prognostic value of 1 day (before treatment), 3 days, 5 days, and 7 days after treatment, with values of 0.806, 0.972, 0.861, and 0.961, respectively. Compared with SAA on the 7th day and C-reactive protein, leukocyte count, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, and hemoglobin on the 7th day, the sensitivities were: 96.1%, 83.3%, 88.3%, 83.3%, 67.9%, and 83.0%, respectively, of which SAA has the highest sensitivity. CONCLUSION: SAA can be used as a predictor of the prognosis in patients with COVID-19.